The rise of the Internet and digital video recorders has made this statement a staple at media conferences lately: “Within the next five years, the business of television will experience greater change than in the previous two decades.”

The rise of the Internet and digital video recorders has made this statement a staple at media conferences lately: “Within the next five years, the business of television will experience greater change than in change in the previous two decades.”

While everyone tends to agree with this mantra, when it gets down to specifics, the talk becomes a bit murkier. What, exactly, will this brave new world mean in terms of advertising? What about greater audience-control? What about all the downloading and file-sharing? And has anyone even thought about the legal issues?

One of the few people willing to stick their neck out and offer a particular vision of the future is Shelly Palmer, a managing partner at the consultancy Advanced Media Ventures. His recent book, Television Disrupted: The Transition from Network to Networked TV, takes a look at the current industry trends and offers to put the various issues in proper perspective.

Palmer attempts to take a reassuring tone – reflected in statements as “new media rarely completely replaces existing media” – but he does suggest that certain forms of thinking about new and old media be replaced. In particular, the term “TV households” will not be as viewed as an all-encompassing media target anymore.

Overall, his primary message seems to be, “The smartest people in Hollywood realize that they are not in the movie business; they are in the content business. It is their job to listen to their customers and deliver content in form factors that consumers want.”

Palmer's book is his attempt to define the terms – time-shifting, unique users, access lines – and how television can – and will, he insists – exist in the future.

“The world is getting more complicated daily and to sort it out, we need to know a little bit about the technologies and organizations that are making it so,” Shelly says on his website, describing his book. “In certain cases, we can make educated guesses about the future.”